COP31: Fossil Fuels Still Dominate Amid a Difficult Energy Transition
Top line
Despite global climate pledges and the rise of renewables, fossil fuels continue to dominate the world's energy supply, with oil and gas demand projected to grow for decades.
Summary
Despite the 2023 COP28 commitment by nearly 200 nations to transition away from fossil fuels, global production of oil, coal, and gas has increased, with fossil fuels maintaining an 81% to 86% share of the global energy supply. While renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, are experiencing rapid growth in the electricity sector, electricity constitutes only a fraction of total energy consumption, and demand for oil and gas is projected to rise through 2050 under current policies. As the upcoming COP31 climate summit omits the fossil fuel phase-out from its official agenda, experts emphasize that domestic market dynamics, energy security, and national policies are the primary drivers of actual energy transition efforts.
Highlights
- Despite the COP28 pledge by nearly 200 countries to transition away from fossil fuels, global production of oil, coal, and gas has continued to rise.
- Fossil fuels accounted for 86% of the global energy supply in 2025 according to The Energy Institute, and 81% in 2024 per the International Energy Agency.
- National energy mixes vary significantly: the United States relies heavily on oil and gas at 36% each, China predominantly on coal at 60%, France on nuclear power at 45%, and Germany heavily on oil at 35% and gas at 28%.
- Renewable energy is expanding rapidly in the electricity sector—with global solar generation surging 28% in 2025—yet electricity accounts for only 23% of final global energy consumption.
- While coal demand may peak before 2030, International Energy Agency projections indicate that oil and gas demand will continue growing until 2050 under current policies.
- The official agenda for the upcoming COP31 climate summit in Turkey does not include the phase-out of fossil fuels.
- Experts note that market forces, energy sovereignty, and domestic actions—particularly in countries like China and India—drive real-world energy shifts more effectively than international climate summits.
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