This summer isn’t breaking heat records — yet. Wait until El Nino kicks in, scientists say
Top line
Driven by human-caused climate change and an intensifying El Nino, 2026 is on track to potentially become the hottest year on record.
Summary
Despite widespread wildfires and severe heat waves across the globe, 2026 currently ranks as the third-hottest year on record. However, scientists warn that human-caused climate change combined with a strengthening super El Nino could push 2026 to eclipse 2024 as the hottest year on record, with 2027 likely to shatter subsequent records. While current extreme summer temperatures are driven by long-term greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing industrial cooling pollution, the impending El Nino threatens to further exacerbate extreme weather worldwide.
Highlights
- Although experiencing severe wildfires, record-hot ocean temperatures, and intense heat waves globally, 2026 is currently ranked as the third-hottest year on record.
- Climate scientists predict that 2026 could surpass 2024 to become the hottest year on record due to a combination of human-caused global warming and a strengthening super El Nino.
- Experts suggest that 2027 is a near-certainty to break modern temperature records by a significant margin.
- Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth calculated a 35% chance that 2026 will exceed 2024's record, a probability that has increased significantly since earlier in the year.
- Global daily sea surface temperatures have reached record highs since June, with approximately 82% of the world's ocean surface experiencing marine heat waves.
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and former NASA scientist James Hansen indicate rising odds for record global temperatures later in the year as ocean heat reflects into global averages.
- Current summer heat is primarily driven by long-term greenhouse gas emissions rather than El Nino, whose direct impacts typically lag by a few months.
- Decreasing traditional industrial pollution, which previously created a cooling mask of soot and smog, is further accelerating global warming.
- Unprecedented and frequent heat waves have impacted Europe, North America, South America, and India, causing severe disruptions including high nighttime temperatures that impair human health and productivity.
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