Coal demand set to plunge as the world goes electric
Top line
A Climate Resource report reveals current policies fall short of global electrification targets, prompting calls for stronger measures to reduce fossil fuel demand and expand renewables ahead of COP31.
Summary
A new report by Climate Resource indicates that current global policies fall short of the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, projecting that electricity will supply under 30 per cent of final energy demand by 2035 rather than the targeted 35 per cent. Although existing technologies could raise this rate to 33 per cent, achieving the goal requires stronger policy backing for infrastructure, finance, and consumer awareness. Under ambitious pathways, fossil fuel demand—particularly coal, which could plummet by 68 per cent—would significantly decline, assisting global temperatures in returning to 1.5C by 2100. Concurrently, Australia endorsed a declaration at the pre-COP31 summit in Fiji to double global homes equipped with rooftop solar to 300 million by 2030.
Highlights
- A study by Climate Resource, funded by the Australian government and released at the pre-COP31 summit in Fiji, found that current global policies will cause electricity to supply less than 30 per cent of final energy demand by 2035.
- The findings fall short of the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, which targets a 35 per cent electrification rate by 2035 and is set to be discussed at the COP31 summit in Turkey.
- Utilising existing cost-competitive technology could raise the global electrification rate to 33 per cent by 2035, but reaching the full 35 per cent target requires supportive policies for infrastructure, consumer awareness, and finance.
- Under the most ambitious pathways, median coal demand would plunge by 68 per cent compared to 2025, while oil demand would drop by 23 per cent and gas by 19 per cent.
- Global temperatures are projected to rise to 1.7C in the 2040s under the proposed pathways before returning to 1.5C by 2100.
- Australia endorsed the Global Rooftop Solar Declaration at the pre-COP31 summit, aiming to double homes with rooftop solar from 150 million to 300 million by 2030.
- Energy Minister Chris Bowen stated that Australia leads the world in rooftop solar installations and will share its expertise and support with other nations.
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