The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world - and we are far from ready for it
Top line
An unprecedented climate-crisis-driven "super" El Niño is forecast to trigger severe global weather chaos and record-breaking temperatures through 2027, while governments continue expanding fossil fuel extraction.
Summary
An unprecedented "super" El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, supercharged by human-induced climate change, is projected to peak with a 4C heating anomaly later this year, threatening severe global weather disruptions through 2027. The UK faces increased risks of severe flooding, damaging storms, and economic strain, while regions worldwide brace for extreme events ranging from droughts and wildfires in Australia and the Amazon to torrential rains and potential megastorms in California. Despite projections that these conditions will drive global temperatures to record highs of 1.6C to 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, author Bill McGuire criticizes governments for continuing to support fossil fuel expansion and rolling back environmental policies.
Highlights
- An incoming "super" El Niño in the equatorial Pacific is forecast to reach an astonishing 4C later this year, marking a potential global weather upheaval.
- El Niño is a natural cycle of ocean heating and cooling, but it is being intensified and supercharged by rapid global heating driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
- Stronger El Niños are occurring more frequently as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise.
- The UK Met Office warns of a stormy, wet autumn and winter, bringing severe flood risks similar to or exceeding the 2015-2016 floods, alongside wind damage risks from drought-weakened trees.
- Strong El Niños cause massive global economic damage, with the 1997-1998 event resulting in $5.7tn in losses, posing future threats to UK food security and economic wellbeing.
- Globally, India is experiencing its weakest monsoon in 20 years, while western South America and the western US face torrential rains and flooding.
- The Amazon, south and southeast Asia, and Australia face severe heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, alongside an increase in Pacific typhoons.
- California is bracing for extreme precipitation events like the potential ARkStorm scenario, which risks widespread flooding and nearly $1tn in economic losses.
- The ongoing El Niño effects will extend into 2027, likely making it the hottest year on record and pushing global temperatures at least 1.6C to 1.7C above pre-industrial levels.
- Despite these dire projections, author Bill McGuire criticizes governments and fossil fuel corporations for scaling back green policies and planning expansions.
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